Why Are Republicans Really Retiring? Could Trump Be to Blame?

A growing number of Republican members of Congress are choosing not to run for re‑election ahead of the 2026 midterms, raising questions about the party’s future strategy. According to the Houston Chronicle, Texas alone has seen nine members of Congress announce their departures, a number higher than in 2018 ahead of President Donald Trump’s first midterm election.

This includes a mix of retirements and members seeking other offices, signaling both personal and strategic factors at play.

Who Is Leaving?

Most of the departing lawmakers are Republicans. Exceptions include Democratic Reps. Jasmine Crockett, who is running for U.S. Senate, Marc Veasey, running for Tarrant County judge, and Lloyd Doggett, who is retiring after a U.S. Supreme Court decision merged much of his Austin district with that of Rep. Greg Casar. 

Among Republicans, Rep. Chip Roy of San Antonio and Rep. Wesley Hunt of Houston are leaving to seek higher office — Texas Attorney General and U.S. Senate, respectively. Reps. Jodey Arrington, Morgan Luttrell, Michael McCaul, and Troy Nehls, appear to be stepping away from public office entirely, citing reasons ranging from family priorities to frustration with congressional gridlock.

Nationwide, the pattern is even more pronounced. More than 30 Republicans have announced they will not seek reelection, including notable figures such as Marjorie Taylor Greene, Don Bacon, Elise Stefanik, and Byron Donalds.

What Is Driving the Wave of Retirements?

Concerns about voter sentiment, historical midterm trends, and challenging electoral prospects are adding to the stress of campaigning. 

Internal party dynamics and the influence of President Trump have contributed to a complicated political environment for some members. Some Republicans have publicly expressed frustration at the pressure to align with the president’s priorities, while others cite the highly polarized Congress and limited opportunities for major legislation as reasons to step away.

Redistricting has also played a role in shaping decisions. Changes to district lines in Texas and other states require incumbents to appeal to new constituents and, in some cases, compete against colleagues. These shifts create uncertainty that can influence a lawmaker’s choice to retire.

With midterm elections approaching and redistricting fights still unresolved in several states, more retirements may be on the horizon. Experts say the 2026 wave could ultimately rival the GOP losses of 2018, potentially reshaping the party’s influence and leadership in Congress for years to come.